saw a lot of highly convicted takes on the war trajectory and the economic outlook. a few things worth pointing out: 1. everything is just probability before it happens. 2. spending too much time on the timeline will deepen your blind spots - the algo keeps feeding you more of what you already believe. 3. true edge rarely shows up on the internet and nobody has full information across parties. the moment some info is publicly confirmed, it has already lost much of its power to change the outcome. if you really want to trade on that information. make sure you set expectations for both loss and profit before the market does it for you.