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9.5 Million Barrels per day not flowing through Strait of Hormuz, could be more because of Fujairah (??)
That's more than all of Saudi production
17 hours ago
Pre-war Strait of Hormuz *crude* flow: ~15m b/d
My current flow assumptions:
Iran: ~1.2m b/d (SoH)
UAE: ~1.8m b/d (Fujairah)
KSA: >2.0m b/d (Red Sea above pre-war)
Plus ~0.5m b/d (SoH tankers with AIS off)
Total: ~5.5m b/d (~35% of pre-war)
Saudi flows to rise by Thu-Fri
Some of this is going to come back online through Saudi East-West Pipeline
I don't want to be a doomer but the facts as I perceive them are not encouraging
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