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1 - Anthropic - more importantly the org structure works for the future
2 - OpenAI - + 1.5 months - took in too many B players from Meta and now has org chart issues
3 - Google - + 2 months - team is cranking but it’s not life or death issue so 🤷♀️
4 - Meta/xAI - 6/7 months behind
5 - Chinese firms - 9 months behind, constrained by chip access
Anthropic and OpenAI are clearly nearing recursive self improvement.
Google, Meta, xAI stuck.
- Demis believes in real science, language models are not the path to AGI but if HQ requires language models so be it
- Meta, xAI - trying to catch up desperately but far
Mar 13, 10:53
Based on the data I see, I think:
- Anthropic🇺🇸/Google🇺🇸/OpenAI🇺🇸 all ~tied
- Meta🇺🇸 / xAI🇺🇸 each ~7mo behind
- Moonshot🇨🇳/- Deepseek🇨🇳 / zAI 🇨🇳 / Alibaba🇨🇳each ~9mo behind
- Mistral🇫🇷 ~1.5 years behind
- No other companies competitive
@Happyjuss @chrisprucha just FYI like 90% of my portfolio is in Nvidia but still..
I don’t think the CUDA
moat stands
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