speculation for better information discovery and towards more efficient markets is one of the most beautiful phenomena in the world i met an AI researcher who had spent two decades in hft / jane street and ren tech before moving to sf and we talked about how fascinated i am by the concept of speculation as a pricing tool for otherwise inefficent / neglected markets and how we're approaching that with @metagametrade crypto is still a bit of a dirty word in sf but i was surprised to learn that in his circles of AI researchers, manifold markets is the most popular prediction market that folks check nearly daily pricing events (polymarket) pricing memes (pump fun) pricing communities (daos fun) pricing ideas (believe, heaven) pricing narratives (alt coins) pricing creators (@metagametrade) these types of niche markets spread through social circles of 'traders' who engage with the material every day and bet with prediction markets as a form of entertainment or validation of world view, constantly evaluating in their minds what the probability of, say 'AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028' these types of hyperlocalized markets that only intrigue a small number of extremely hyper intelligent / engaged insiders will only proliferate and we'll have an abundance of market driven information on how technology impacts society that is constantly re evaluated on a daily basis every cult community will have a financialized outlet to express their world view on how opinions or creators should be priced @metagametrade

Received an offer from legit actor to buy our $1.8M allocation in @PlasmaFDN public sale in 3x. I answered that at this price, it was extorsion. Trillions.

only in sf ‘i would loved to be cucked by elon and have my wife have his babies’ - xAI employee

an example of this is that a few of my friends are involved with the next several hot treasury strategy launches we have more room to run for public companies experiencing price pumps for acquiring crypto bubbles always take longer to pop than one expects

companies that are afraid to let employees have personal brands are going to be left behind

did the cobie mm thread end up just boiling down to the fact that its crypto and projects scam so mms have to scam so projects scam harder so mms scam harder and retail gets fucked and binance says hey then let me fuck you back and projects and mms scam retail harder

i grew up with this saying ‘born in california go to school in california die in california’ and spending time in sf as an adult has made me realize how true it is the fear of never experiencing the world made me spend the past decade taking every opportunity to see and feel as much new as possible, different careers and countries, and i think ive only just become self aware of how much ive experienced from how sf has treated me like a curiosity so far starting anecdotes at parties with ‘when i was at the dmz with the korean military’ or ‘when i was in riyadh for work’ or ‘when i bartended in chile’ has turned so many heads whereas i think that new york is such a melting pot that unique experiences are more status quo i always thought of sf as the ‘intelligent’ city but having people pointedly say that im an intelligent person (but awkward) has made me realize that most ‘intelligent’ people in this city lack this 30.000 ft perspective that comes from experiencing so many walks of life like i have i don’t think i can wrap my head around the concept of just going to school then getting a job and sitting still for an extended period of time all in the same state you grew up in and will die in lotta self glazing in this tweet but just opened my eyes to how much ive grown over the past decade california really does feels a bit like an incarnation of a chance pena song or a steinbeck novel i’ll probably write a substack piece on this

to build for dopamine addled consumers one must have a dopamine addled brain @metagametrade

The secret to being good at stuff is to take personal offense when anyone is better than you

Seeing people who called me insane / moronic at $.55 XRP calling me insane and moronic for selling it at $3.2 reminds me of why markets remain my lifelong calling Long machine intelligence short human intelligence Post Fiat