A study on bitcoin's volatility and extreme tails by ARK's Research Trading Analyst and Associate Portfolio Manager for Digital Assets @dpuellARK 👇

A study on #bitcoin's volatility and extreme tails. Start of thread... 1/ Key takeaways: 1. As seen below, and somewhat obvious today, bitcoin's volatility has decreased. 2. Bitcoin has consolidated 84% of the time, above the rule-of-thumb 70% given in financial literature. 3. Bitcoin days of extreme volatility seem to have diminished over time. 4. Based solely on recorded volatility, there have been two extremely catastrophic days in the history of bitcoin. Which days? The answer is at the end of this thread. The first chart below provides every single trading day in context on how volatile it is relative to 1 to 4 standard deviations (a.k.a. sigma units). Let's dive in...

Listen in to this Spaces in 5 minutes for a discussion on CPI forecasts, macro trends, and digital assets, featuring @dpuellARK.

.@dpuellARK provides a mid-year review on our research and predictions for bitcoin, including references to data from "Big Ideas 2025," published at the beginning of the year. Big Ideas 2025: Share your thoughts!

Catch ARK’s latest bitcoin insights in the June edition of “The Bitcoin Monthly,” plus a breakdown from one of its authors @dpuellARK ⬇️

The Bitcoin Monthly report for June is out! Thread below.

This chart tracks the Domestic-to-Offshore Spot Volume Ratio for major exchanges. Basically, how much trading volume shifted into US-regulated exchanges or out of offshore exchanges. Notice how spikes tend to follow major security breaches.

After years tracking the evolution of blockchain and crypto, I’m thrilled to share that I’ve joined @ARKInvest on the Digital Assets team. It’s an incredible time for the industry, and I’m excited to help advance the financial infrastructure of the next era.

Bitcoin has never been stable for this long during a bull market. Research Trading Analyst and Associate Portfolio Manager for Digital Assets @dpuellARK explains.👇

Bitcoin has never been stable for this long during a bull market. Starting May and October 2023, respectively, the 6m and 1y skews of both broad volatility and extreme tails have been positive with no interruption, unlike prior bull markets. Compare in the charts below. We believe this is exactly what would appeal to a risk-averse investor. (For the technical analyst, what you see below are the log Farinelli–Tibiletti ratios of the upper and lower partial second and fourth moments, capturing the asymmetry of the even-order cumulants over time).