Hard not to underestimate the role a weaker dollar is playing for Bitcoin and broader risk The dollar is the lubricant for global trade and finance and represents and huge easing in global financial conditions Circa 17trn dollar of debt is issued outside of the US, so a weaker dollar is a boon for so many Not to mention how many goods and commodities still priced in dollars It’s the dollar wrecking ball in reverse Further, it facilitates the expansion of global money supply Central banks trying to slow their currency strength against the dollar effectively print domestic currency to buy dollars, expanding FX reserves and so pumping the money supply Dollar strength/weakness tends to act on markets with a circa 3 month lag Dollar peaked mid Jan, BTC bottomed 9th April Most recent low in the dollar was 1st July We’re still of the view that the dollar is being managed weaker as a quid pro quo in trade negotiations A weaker dollar benefits everyone! But if that’s the low then we’re unlikely to see Bitcoin top out until around October A continued move lower in the dollar however and the party keeps going 🕺🏾 Think then we can run to 150k this quarter (maybe 200k with a FOMO chase overshoot) Will assess from there Bond market still a cause for concern and if yields rise in a disorderly fashion, that could blow back on broad risk Although if debt sustainability fears are the cause of higher yields, then Bitcoin will outperform Not least, the response to rising yields will be financial repression and yield curve control, reinforcing the currency debasement Bitcoin is the “head I win, tails you lose trade”