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The CPI data and the estimates are not far apart. The overall CPI meets expectations, and the core CPI is slightly better than the overall forecast, but still higher than last month's data.
The expectation for the first interest rate cut in September has dropped from around 60% to 50.6%.
However, the probability of a total of three rate cuts this year is actually only 17.9%.
The probability of two rate cuts is the highest at 41.4%, which is consistent with the Fed's dot plot from June.
The expectation for one rate cut is higher than for three, with a probability of 32.3%.
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Tonight's CPI, the predicted data for the 4 CPI ratios is slightly higher than last month.
I looked at the non-farm data from July 3rd, and both the annual and monthly wage data are slightly lower than expected, and also lower than last month's data.
On one hand, the predicted CPI is higher than last month, while on the other hand, considering the impact of wages on the price composition, the annual and monthly wage rates are declining, leading to the speculation that tonight's CPI might be better than expected.
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