Do people arguing that housing is going to weaken enough to cause unemployment realize permits are already down 10% Y/Y? Housing is not going to decline enough to push unemployment up or to cause deflation in rents Rates stay higher & housing gets crunched. But gov jobs 🚀

Truly no lessons learned by anyone the last 5 years Really an amazing experiment in anchoring Apparently it takes 10 years for anyone to change their mind. 2010-2020 and now 2020-2030

@toiletkingcap The Fed and every macro forecaster has a housing centric view of how the job market works And this is the event they’ve been previewing for years as fixing inflation and unemployment Yet as it’s happening UE is going down

@toiletkingcap The economy is just changing to have the government and tech crowd out literally every other industry And these big brains keep thinking the crowding out means we’re going into recession tomorrow Then we don’t and we just get another year of big inflation