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Nick's latest tweet: Why did Bessent advise Trump against firing Powell? Here are a few reasons: )
1) Federal Reserve officials have hinted that they may cut rates twice before the end of the year: Powell doesn't need to be fired to lower rates, so why take the risk?
2) Firing Powell could trigger market panic: Investors might feel that the president is interfering with monetary policy, which would be detrimental to the independence of the financial system.
3) Legal complications: Powell could sue, and the lawsuit might drag on until spring—just as Powell's term is ending.
4) If Powell is removed, there's no guarantee that a successor will be confirmed quickly. Under current law, the Fed's vice chair exercises authority in the absence of the chair. Vice Chair Jefferson was appointed by Biden and is also an ally of Powell.
It’s clear that Bessent isn’t particularly supportive of Powell, but rather weighing the pros and cons to tell Trump that doing this might not yield the desired outcome, especially since time is on Trump’s side; with each passing day, Powell's term gets shorter.
I have to say, having a rational adult like Bessent around Trump is quite something.



17.7. klo 07.01
Regarding Trump's attempt to fire Powell last night, as previously stated: firing Powell without cause actually undermines the independence granted to the Federal Reserve by U.S. law (challenging the constitutional system); whether it's calling out Powell or pushing Federal Reserve board members to come out against him in support of interest rate cuts, or discussing the early determination of the next Federal Reserve chair, or trying to force Powell to resign by overspending on renovations of the Federal Reserve building, all of this is political maneuvering within the framework of constitutional law. Firing Powell is not the optimal choice; getting Powell to resign voluntarily is.
In the next ten months or so, Powell may: 1) resign voluntarily; 2) serve until the end of his term but Trump nominates a chair candidate early; 3) be fired. For Trump, the best scenario is naturally 1), the second best is 2), and currently, the market is more focused on the interest rate policy path after the new chair takes office. Of course, if it's 3), it will still cause some impact, but the intensity should not be significant.

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