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plur daddy
Nihilistic speculator
The fiscal train doesn't stop. Helicopter money is absurdly bullish for our coins.

First Squawk5 tuntia sitten
Trump Says He Is Considering Rebate Checks for Low-Income Americans, According to Reports
15K
Adding length here in the $116k range into the next few days, market is giving a good level. STRC has been upsized to $2.8bn, so there will be around $4bn in total incoming if you add Mara and ATMs from Saylor and others. Feels ugly LTF but it's noise. BTC is going higher.


plur daddy24.7. klo 22.22
Timeline of reinforcements for BTC:
7/25: Mara Holdings $950mm convert closes
7/26-27: Saylor likely deploys some ATM proceeds from the week
7/28-29: Saylor STRC $500mm (more likely $1bn) hits
8/11: Nakamoto Holdings $763mm
Late Aug/early Sep: Strive $750mm
Any others?
9,33K
Timeline of reinforcements for BTC:
7/25: Mara Holdings $950mm convert closes
7/26-27: Saylor likely deploys some ATM proceeds from the week
7/28-29: Saylor STRC $500mm (more likely $1bn) hits
8/11: Nakamoto Holdings $763mm
Late Aug/early Sep: Strive $750mm
Any others?

plur daddy23.7. klo 23.01
We have been relatively pinned in this range but reinforcements will arrive by early next week.
Saylor's STRC proceeds will be coming in. $500mm offering but likely will be meaningfully upsized.
SBET is freed from share count constraint after 7/24 vote, after which they will start issuing more. This may be subject to T+2 settlement to receive proceeds, depends on whether they did forward agreements (and size).
15,37K
plur daddy kirjasi uudelleen
There is a potential $2b+ inflow into Bitcoin next week:
- Saylor's average ATM has been ~$600m per week
- Additionally, raising $500m via STRC (likely topped up)
- Mara does an $850m raise, upsized to $950m.
So we potentially have ~$2b+ from TCOs' alone, with the possibility of second-order effects that materialize via renewed ETF interest.
The best reference for this is July 10 - 11.
ETFs bought ~$2b and Bitcoin rallied ~10% over the next days.
The rally came to a halt when an ancient bitcoin whale started transferring ~$9b Bitcoin to the Galaxy OTC desk on Monday.
The price action was muted ever since as the coins exchanged hands.
There is a decent chance that most, if not all, of the coins are now absorbed by the market.
I give it a high likelihood that this sell-pressure is fully absorbed and that Bitcoin is able to breakout with next week's inflows.

11,74K
We have been relatively pinned in this range but reinforcements will arrive by early next week.
Saylor's STRC proceeds will be coming in. $500mm offering but likely will be meaningfully upsized.
SBET is freed from share count constraint after 7/24 vote, after which they will start issuing more. This may be subject to T+2 settlement to receive proceeds, depends on whether they did forward agreements (and size).
12,19K
plur daddy kirjasi uudelleen
"Why does Saylor need to issue a new preferred stock ?"
He is filling the void on this chart to appeal to different pools of capital
Each new instrument makes the whole structure stronger, not weaker
It will take a lot of time for the market to understand all these preferred before allocating
So Saylor might as well issue them and let people digest them progressively
MSTR is not very levered right now. He is in a position of strength and is quietly executing his plan

7,57K
This is playing out across all major countries. Politics forcing fiscal expansion, and then gov + CB has to play games to contain bond market. This is a mix of duration reduction (shifting to bills), YCC, and financial repression. BTC is the beneficiary on both ends.

AP Research22.7. klo 21.56
Japan’s election aftermath is playing out in the long end. Ishiba is clinging on, but the curve keeps steepening.
Weaker super-longs, and a 40y auction ahead.
Some commentary and two trades on the back of it all.


3,51K
Everyone is super jittery and worried about a top. As we enter into a bubble there will be signs of froth. That is to be expected.
All that matters is:
1. Trump wants to run it as hot as possible
2. They have incremental levers to pull to increase the temperature
Let this be your north star.
Many of you seem to have forgotten what a real bubble feels like. As long as the two conditions above are true, the bubble will keep growing. Take a deep breath and stay long.
10,52K
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