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Joe Burnett, MSBA
Bitcoin | Director of Bitcoin Strategy at Semler Scientific $SMLR | Not financial advice
Joe Burnett, MSBA kirjasi uudelleen
$MSTR | $STRK | $STRF | $STRD | $STRC - I want to speak on mNAV quickly and the constant chatter around it. Case in point "@Strategy needs to stop the ATM to let the mNAV run". Here's a piece of the mNAV puzzle and why that approach | claim just doesn't make sense.
Despite the fact that mNAV is sentiment and thus not a lever you can control, or an "effect" you can create "cause" for, this is a simplified example that shows how the entire @Strategy model is a reflexive cycle:
High Sentiment → High mNAV → ATM Execution → More BTC Acquired → Proof of Strategy → Reinforced High Sentiment
Sentiment is first cause IMO no matter what anyone says. So the suggestion to "lay off the ATM" would actually break this reflexive cycle and thus risks the creation of a recursive cycle instead:
Stop ATM → Market Questions Strategy → Sentiment Fades → mNAV Erodes → Company Loses Ability to Accrete Value → Proves Premium was Unjustified → Further mNAV Erosion
In conclusion, @Strategy pausing its ATM for months is not a recipe for a higher mNAV; it is a recipe | signal of strategic failure. That is mistaking the engine of the strategy for a brake and would risk destroying the very market confidence that created the premium in the first place. ATM Equity Offerings aren't suppressing mNAV they are essentially a result | function of mNAV.
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