The timeline is obviously very loud at the moment as we are heading straight to Valhalla, but I think the main argument that this trend is "early" is flawed. I do see at least a handful of funding and basis charts each day, mentioning that we are nowhere near the top because funding is low. Personally, I think people don't realize how much this market has changed and will continue to change over the last 18 months since ETF launched. The last classic "funding/basis top" we saw was on March 24, when the ETF inflows surprised many people. Since then, the price of BTC has doubled without any extreme funding rates, simply due to buying coming from elsewhere and the market being much more efficient. You can easily understand this when you realize that we had maybe 3 or 4 significant liquidation events in the last 18 months, which were very signature of Bitcoin beforehand. Although not widely discussed on CT, as people don't trade options extensively, this market sophistication is also evident in implied volatility, which has been trending lower since 2020 and has drastically accelerated downward after ETFs were launched, leaving volatility buyers in pain. We are obviously in an uptrend, not only Bitcoin, but also ETH is getting some of that institutional love lately. My point is that I don't think we will see the top in the form of classic retail blowing off with derivatives going insane, as they did in 2021. Instead, I think the price will simply not go up after the 98th no-name company tries to copy Saylor, and the price will no longer react. I don't think longing here is very attractive, as I believe the market is quite stretched and open interest flowing into shitters is pretty alarming; however, you do you.

the pinch

I spent god knows how many hours trying to build an automated system using several uncorrelated (non-TA) indicators for SPX. For whatever reason, it actually works better on Bitcoin.

i would like to apologize for all the slurs I said towards Ethereum foundation and Vitalik over the years. Seems like tech became much better all of a sudden.

We’re making a major change to how funded trading works at Breakout. Newly funded accounts will now run on A-Book execution. No more misaligned incentives. No more trading against the house. We’re fully aligned with our traders. Here’s what that means 👇

live for next hour-ish with @RunnerXBT sponsored by @bonkbot_io

The longer I trade, the more I find technical analysis to be dumb and useless in predicting anything. It's also funny how useful technical analysis can be with proper context. In other words, your trade ideas should not come from drawing lines on a chart, but drawing lines on a chart can significantly improve your trades.

I am a big fan of new all-time highs on Bitcoin since I am long, but this is not looking very bull-market ready at the moment. The large open interest grind from yesterday is starting to crack, with the order book being heavily skewed towards the sell side. Still holding longs from 100k for now, but would not open new ones here.

the best, most battle-tested strategy when one is tempted to buy Ethereum is to simply just long Bitcoin instead.

There you go