Gets more interesting than this -- there is possibly/probably a leak somewhere. The price started inching higher 12 hours BEFORE the strike. There are signs that a Polymarket trader, with insider knowledge, is buying tons of shares ahead of Israeli strikes. The person (or group) creates a new account each time. Chatter started among traders yesterday morning about a strike given the new account buying again. Last night's win was $134,000. The account was created ~24 hours before the attack, started buying massively ~12 hours before the attack. Only traded 1 market. After the win, withdrew the money, and Keyser Soze'd right out of there. I almost never think its an insider. But this has now happened 3x in a row for Israeli strikes -- when Israel struck Iran in October 2024, when Israel struck the Houthis a month or two ago, and again for yesterday's strike. There's an intel leak somewhere.
Joe Weisenthal
Joe Weisenthal13.6.2025
You can see pretty clearly in this chart. The polymarket contract on the strikes started moving before futures. Right around 7:47 last night. (Inverted the futures axis to make it clearer)
The account last night for anyone interested:
495,75K