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US government models, similar to the UN, assume that birthrates will just magically recover, even though they keep going lower.
Although fertility rates have fallen to around 1.6, models assume fertility returns to 1.9 by 2050. @TPCarney notes that such a recovery is unlikely.
20.6.2025
The Social Security Administration's projections about the future rely on the assumption that the birthrate has bottomed out, and that it will rise by nearly 20 percent in coming years.
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