Short thesis on Crypto, Stocks and the Dollar for H2 > Dollar performance on H1 is bad, on average > Dollar performance on H2 is good, on average > Dollar is having the worst performance since 1973 > The last 2 times the dollar dumped over 10% in H1, it almost fully recovered in H2 > The ECB is not loving the idea that EUR/USD gets to $1.20 > The ECB will cut rates if EUR/USD gets to $1.25 > July 9th gives clarity on Trump tariffs > Any sign of softening on Tariffs leads to USD rally because money starts flowing back out of Europe + Asia and into the US > This would give comfort regarding the inflationary and growth pressures of the tariffs > Gives room for FED to cut, which means equities will also go up > Bitcoin up This assumes that the Tariff/Trade War outcomes will be softer than people think, and also that Trump will capitulate a bit, so we'll see I'm heavily loaded on Bitcoin and am considering shorting the Euro with some of the stablecoins I have but am still debating this since I literally spent only the past hour studying this lol Still years away from having a good understanding of macro so if you notice any inconsistencies I'd love to learn