ISM Services Employment at 47.2 is a red flag for the unemployment rate. They started collecting this data in 1997. We saw this thing crack 47 in April 2001 and January 2008, then again during Covid lockdowns. In this cycle, the first print of 47 or lower was December 2023. It rebounded to 53.9 a few months ago but has been weak ever since. No reaction yet from the unemployment rate.