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Kris: I believe you may be optimistic here. My sample: 1. Retail: during my last gardening, I called out to successful retail traders (I posted criteria) and spoke to ~30 of them, some very famous, from deep value, to tactical intraday, factor timers, arbitrageurs, shorting experts. 2. HF: dunno, maybe 200PMs, maybe a bit more, just in L/S equities. In total, embarrassingly many. And I mean, seeing their actual, true, pnl, not the “audited track record”. End of flex.
My findings: the *only* “retail” investor I would have given my own money to was essentially a professional, no huge social media profile, teaching exec investment courses in a top-tier uni. He is definitely a clever arb trader, and with some opportunistic fundamental analysis abilities. He’d be employable at a good HF. Actually, I don’t think he’s strictly retail. But in any case, the “finest” traders on the planet in either class in a good HF are just very, *very* different animals.
I am comparing to a HF population. Institutional managers are (mostly) drawn from a different set.
What’s the moral? If things are really so bad, my recommendation to you is that you just barely keep a pulse. Don’t even time, don’t concentrate. You’ll beat the mostest people; you’ll beat the market makers who buy your flow. You’ll beat the RH peddlers. The almost-dead can beat most of the living. And being investing-but-almost-dead in finance, you can use the freed time to actually live irl. Eat with frens, greet strangers in the street, or fall in love.

11.7. klo 09.13
To be clear, the top 1% of active retail traders are some of the finest traders on the planet. But the majority are not in the top 1%.
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