Is Trump's grievances against the Fed justified? Answer from a rule-based prescription (our calibrated inertial Taylor rule) of fed funds rate says: sort of, but not for not cutting rates now. Basically, the rule conditional on economic data and the median FOMC member's view of r* and u* would say that the FOMC cut too steeply in 4Q 2024 (election quarter), so it looks bad. But because it came into the year too accommodative, the rule also says it should keep rates on hold for the rest of the year, at the end of which rates will finally catch up to the rule-based prescription. @TheTerminal :