Been helping family & friends with retirement planning lately First of all, it’s insane how much net worth regular boomers have if you consider the stacking of pension + social security Second: people are delusional about the value of their homes. Bubbles cause anchoring

@WarrenPies Markets where you have new supply as a forging mechanism on price are deflating

@WarrenPies Really just wish the Fed would reset stocks lower and we could get the cycle generally in a healthier place Wealth effect fumes still keeping prices higher than they should be particularly in coastal markets But it will happen in time on its own

Unlike past cycles though I really don’t think home price declines are going to derail the business cycle though It’s not that big a sector as a % of total employment anymore and builders will still be building, just at a lower pace Like Florida and Austin prices are already done a lot and those economies are doing fine

@WarrenPies It’s just burning off a bubble of wealth effect psychology more than anyone actually taking a loss

@WarrenPies Which again is why it’s so comical to me the Fed thinks that being more restrictive would cause pain It’s like they don’t want to give boomers bad news their homes are not worth 9x the median income because it would hurt their feelings But that’s how monetary policy works now