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$ETH After hitting the overbought line twice in a row in the channel under the ASR general parameter group, it finally started to weaken!
At present, it seems to be inclined to pull back, but it is difficult to make a U-turn with such a strong trend, and the operating logic of the price in the channel is often carried out step by step.
In the past, the price movement channel of ETH was the overbought line and the upper edge of the average pressure band, so if the trend momentum weakens, the next channel to fluctuate will be within the average pressure band, which is the orange channel.
Therefore, the short-term correction target is likely to be around 3500, provided that the price can return to the orange channel (I personally think the probability is quite high, but there is indeed support at present).
The criterion for maintaining a strong bullish trend is that the price does not fall below the yellow line above the oscillation channel, so even if there is a pullback, we cannot prematurely assume that ETH has entered a volatile market.
On the other hand, BTC next door fell below the yellow line as early as 5 days ago, which can indeed be regarded as a volatile market, while ETH still does not recommend rushing to conclusions.
If you do not enter the volatile market, it means that any short-selling behavior is not dominant, and the price will have a pullback, but the pullback is usually limited, and it is best to wait for the opportunity to go long at this time;
Only when the end of the strong bull trend is confirmed, short selling is cost-effective.
21.7. klo 14.52
$ETH The historical chip peak area officially completed the breakthrough after the weekly close in the morning!
At present, there is only a little residual supply left at a high of $3,800, and if it can continue to break through, there will be almost no trap in the secondary market of ETH!
If the weakness of ETH in the past three years comes from the suppression of long-term high supply, then after three years of continuous consumption, the supply has almost been released, and breaking through this last supply zone will bring about a similar phenomenon of supply disappearing at the chip level.
To put it simply, there are only profitable chips left in the supply and demand relationship, and there is no supply of chips!
In this case, only a small amount of demand is needed for the price to continue to rise, and it is expected that ETH will continue to shrink and rise for 1 month until the volume appears.
Of course, the premise of all this is that the current market has the ability to complete the breakthrough of this last supply zone.
As for trading ideas, my suggestion is that the advantage of holding spot is greater than that of futures, once it breaks through in the future, the volatility will not be small, and the rhythm of rising by 20% and falling by 10% will often occur.
I took 30% of the spot in 3638 as planned, all according to the long-term plan, and if the price can break through to a new high, I will take 20% of the profit, leaving the remaining 50% spot to hold for a long time.
If you want to take it for a long time, you must take profit appropriately, otherwise as the price continues to rise, you will accidentally make "I have made enough money, clear the position!" Such an operation.
This leads to missing the final orgasm market!
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