As BTC looks primed for its next leg higher, here are 4 indicators I'm using to help predict the top this cycle 🧵👇

1) MVRV Z-Score What is it? -Compares the current MC of BTC to the realized cap (total value of BTC based on the price at which each coin last moved) -Produces a Z-Score that is used to assess if BTC is under/overvalued

Past Performance? This chart with the MVRV Z-Score overlaid on BTC price shows that a Z-Score that spiked above 7 accurately predicted the BTC top (within a ~2 week window) for the past three cycles.

Where are we now? The current MVRV Z-Score for BTC is 2.73, which shows we're still far away from the overvalued region. Given the idea of diminishing returns (also seen on the Z-Score chart above), I plan to stay cautious and take profits once we are above a Z-Score of 5.5.

2) Pi Cycle What is it? -A simple chart based on the 111-Day SMA and 2 x 350-day EMA.

Past Performance? The Pi Cycle Top Indicator accurately predicted the top in every cycle, but did miss the Nov. 2021 double top.

Where are we now? -Current 111-day SMA: $101,726 -Current 2 x 350-day EMA: $176,155 We are currently far from a crossover and at the current trajectory, we can expect it to occur Oct. or Nov. of this year, although it is highly dynamic based on price movements.

3) RHODL Ratio What is it? -A ratio comparing two groups of holders: "Young Coins" (1 week to 1 month) and "Old Coins" (1 to 2 years old) -A high RHODL ratio means that a lot of retail and "young coin" holders are flooding the market, often indicative of a cycle top.

Past Performance? The RHODL ratio spiked into the red zone every cycle, and fell just short of it at the 2021 top, although lingered there for awhile without making a new higher high.

Where are we now? The current RHODL ratio is about 6,000, which indicates a rise in short term holders. In late 2024, we hit a RHODL ratio similar to that of the 2021 peak, but has since dropped and is slowly recovering again.

4) Coinbase Ranking on App Store What is it? -Coinbase reaching the #1 ranking across all Apps on the App Store

Past Performance? Though it started as somewhat of a meme, it did accurately coincide with both the Dec. 2017 and Apr. 2021 peaks - signaling a good indication of retail FOMO

Where are we now? Coinbase is currently #76 across all apps. I've found that these rankings can jump super quick (within days) as price heats up so it's a good idea to monitor regularly.

None of these major top indicators are screaming "sell" yet. But they're all trending upwards 🚨 IMO, we have yet to see the impulsive blow-off top type of move that coincides with extreme FOMO and euphoria at the end of the cycle; the bull market so far has been characterized more by steady institutional flow. I plan to use all four indicators while keeping in mind the idea of diminishing returns and the change in market dynamics/participants and start taking profits when two or more of the indicators start flashing red signals.

NFA! Follow me more for data-driven threads on #Bitcoin & the Crypto market in general. 📈 RT if this was helpful Let's navigate this bull market together 🙏