And now that there is not uncertainty, the market can finally top out Earnings this week and next will be good. Trade war is over. Every bear wrong on fundamentals and the risks from trade Once again the only risk is inflation and whether or not the Fed cares. AGAIN the risk

I’m like 90% confident we will get bad inflation data for about a year I have almost no confidence on what the Fed will do. They are politically captured asset pumpers who have abandoned the inflation side of the mandate But Trump being so hostile to them is complicating

15 VIX is not bullish

@eliant_capital It’s just so binary around what the Fed does If they fully capitulate and just say we’re going to ignore inflation we can overheat and repeat it If they don’t there are going to be tradeoffs that didn’t exist in 2017

@eliant_capital I am probably too concerned about the Fed. Trying to let go of my bizarre bias that at some point they will care about inflation given how bad this is I am like Druckenmiller who says he has to fight this bias to be bearish every day. Been long but I think this cools off some