The S&P 500 index continues to recover from its April swoon along the lines of the 1998 LTCM bottom and 2018 Powell Pivot bottom. If those analogs hold, we should continue to see more gains in the months ahead, with the caveat that the year’s worst seasonal period lies straight ahead of us. However, seasonal patterns tend to work “all else being equal,” and if there is one thing we know in 2025, it’s that nothing else is equal.

@markchristy Ah, good point. Could well be.