🪙Goldman has now dropped its forecast for a September rate cut from the ECB. They believe the cutting cycle is complete and have raised their forecast for the terminal deposit rate to 2% (from 1.75% previously). This is due to: The Japan-US trade deal, which raises the likelihood of an EU-US agreement for a 15% tariff rate. The Governing Council not expecting to receive much significant data that would materially shift the medium-term outlook between now and September. Increased optimism on European growth in 2026 due to the expected German fiscal expansion👀
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