Market View - One Final Pump Before Reducing Risk? Monday: I got excited and opened another long after grinding my portfolio into decent profits. Neither did I know that I was about to give back nearly all the gains I had so hard worked for. (Yes, I did it again - I roundtripped) But didn't we anticipate Saylor having $4.5b for Bitcoin purchases? Well, turns out the Treasury released its borrowing estimates yesterday, and in there, they released the targets for their TGA refill. $500B of liquidity taken out of the market in the short term. Sophisticated market participants saw this coming weeks ahead, but retail investors like me got surprised by the risk-off behaviour ahead of the FOMC meeting. So we saw a decent amount of altcoin liquidations. There is a good and a bad side to this situation: The good part is that the worst is probably over. The market is hopefully positioned now, and longs got liquidated. The bad part is that the TGA refill, combined with some other factors, might bring us an ugly few weeks in August. There are a few possible scenarios and some considerations on how to trade if August actually turns out to be bearish. I will cover those another time. What's important now is that Saylor is still sitting on cash. I have high confidence that he didn't spend any of it yet. His cash settlement timeline is today, so we can assume that he will start spending his cash either today or tomorrow at the latest. I hope this drags the markets up one last time. Before it's time finally time to start taking less risk over August. Cheers.