Powell stressed today that the Fed's decisions will be based on how the economic data performs in coming months. One problem: That data may be becoming less reliable. My story on the BLS's latest cuts to CPI data collection:

To be clear: There is no evidence these cuts are biasing inflation estimates in one direction or the other. And there's no evidence of political interference in the statistical agencies' work.

What there IS evidence of is a gradual erosion of the federal statistical system from declining response rates and shrinking budgets. Increased attrition under the Trump administration may be accelerating that decline.

I still trust the figures coming out of these agencies. But I do expect to see increased volatility and larger revisions, especially in the smaller sub-indexes. All of which will make it harder to get a clear read on the state of the economy.

I am in regular contact with career staffers inside the BLS and other statistical agencies, as well as with people who have recently left. But I'm always looking to talk to more people. Have information you think I should know? Reach out on Signal: