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Fed FOMC Meeting Takeaways:
- Fed left rates unchanged, keeping them in a range of 4.25%-4.5%, in line with expectations.
- Two governors, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, dissented, voting to cut interest rates by 0.25%, marking the first time two governors voted against the committee since 1993.
- Powell said the majority of the committee thinks modestly restrictive policy is still appropriate, and odds of a Sept cut moved down substantially, with markets now putting the likelihood below 50%.
- A big uncertainty for the Fed is whether higher consumer prices stemming from tariffs will lead to persistent inflation.
- Another issue dividing the Fed is the health of the labor market. The two policymakers who dissented have expressed much more concern about weakness on that front than other officials. Powell described the labor market as solid, but noted that there were downside risks.

26.7.2025
Macro:
1. July 29-30: Fed FOMC Meeting
Look out for:
- No change to the fed funds target, 4.25–4.50%.
- Markets price a ~95% chance of unchanged rates on July 30, with any cuts pushed out to Sept or later.
- The updated dot‑plot is expected to reaffirm two rate cuts in 2025, signaling that easing lies ahead but not imminently.
- If the Fed’s dot‑plot or Chair Powell’s press conference leans more dovish—reiterating cuts later in the year—it could spark a fresh crypto rally as investors chase yield and carry into digital assets.
- Conversely, if the Fed tightens its language around inflation risks or pushes out cuts beyond Q4, the U.S. dollar may firm, bond yields could rise, and crypto could see a pullback alongside broader risk‑off flows.
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