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Kerrisdale Capital
投資アイデアをツイートします。法的免責事項をお読みください https://t.co/QPFWQo6HS4
$PSTG今日-13%、報告以降-18%で、SSDやHDDなどのストレージプレーヤーは大幅に落ちています。$PSTG AIやハイパースケーラー、データセンターの建設にはあまり恩恵を受けていません

Kerrisdale Capital2025年9月4日
短い$PSTGです。レポートは で入手できます。Pure Storageは、ディスラプターからディスラプターへと変化しました。ハイパースケーラー戦略は期待外れになると考えており、コアエンタープライズストレージ製品は差別化の低下に直面しています(1/10)
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イタリアの$BZUは依然として安すぎる。以下の更新された部品総和評価は、十分な上昇余地を示しています。$AMRZやホルシムのような比較会社は引き続き高い倍率で取引しており、バッツィも追いつくはずです。私たちは最近の欧州排出権取引制度(ECT)に関する見出しに動じていません。


Kerrisdale Capital2025年10月24日
私たちは、最も低いバリュエーションの1つで取引されている世界最高のセメントメーカーであるBuzzi SpAをロングしています。で報告します。セメントコンプに基づく$BZUの公正価値は、在庫pxが~€85で、現在の水準1/9より73%高いことを意味します
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$TDS本日第4四半期の数字を発表し、この理論は順調に進み続けています。関係者向けのより詳細な決算概要:

Kerrisdale Commentary2026年2月21日
$TDS reported earnings today and here is our internal earnings review note:
Telecom revenue for 4Q and outlook largely inline, with modest beats at the EBITDA line. Total 4Q revenue and EBITDA was 2%/5% ahead, respectively. 2026 guidance range for revenue inline, EBITDA range of $300-$340m vs visible alpha $328m.
Capex of $550-$600m is broadly inline versus visible alpha. It reflects a material increase in fiber passings for 2026 of 200-250k (up from 140k in 2025). 4Q passings increased by 58k so guidance appears healthy/credible. The long-term fiber service address target has been increased to 2.1m from 1.8m. Given the ramp in 2026 it would appear they are holding largely to the 2029 timeframe and just increasing how aggressively they expand, which is an encouraging datapoint in the results.
$AD's 2026E revenue guidance of $200-$215m vs $221m cons, and EBITDA guidance of $50-$65m (midpoint of $57.5m) is modestly ahead of $54m consensus. Suggests the largely cost driven thesis for 2026 remains intact.
FIber KPIs for 4Q are hard to compare since what is included in visible alpha doesn't match what the company now reports, but broadly speaking results appear slightly ahead - with expansion fiber net adds of 10k matching ests, while incumbent fiber net adds of 5k are ahead. Directionally, the 4Q delivered on mgmt commentary last call as far as fiber passings and net additions ending the year on a high note.
Press release mentions "In 2026...we also expect to close our pending spectrum transactions and pursue opportunities to further monetize our remaining spectrum,” Carlson added.
There wasn't any new disclosure or detail regarding fiber plans in the schedule or the presentation so expect some questions on that on the call at 10:30am. Apart from that, these results seem thesis affirming/inline and would expect the street's main takeaway to center on the increased fiber outlook.
Update from earnings call:
Nothing really game changing from the call. Mgmt sounded pretty confident on C-band monetization opp. Thought it was helpful that they confirmed mid-teens returns on the new fiber markets that take prior target of 1.8m passings long term to the new 2.1m target. They also confirmed it's by the same 2029/2030 timeframe as before, so there is no moving of goal posts. Telecom head, Ken Dixon, also had some pretty granular reasons for why he expects 2026 fiber execution to be better (more construction crews and internal resources at this point in the year).
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