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The agreement on US-Japan tariffs may indicate that the US is nearing the end of its tariff negotiations in the Asia-Pacific region. With Japan secured, South Korea is left "alone and unsupported."
What Trump actually needs to do is quite simple: set high tariff targets and then slow down the imposition of tariffs through negotiations, with the aim of opening up the markets of the countries involved in the tariff negotiations.
The goal is to turn the US trade deficit into a surplus, and in doing so, the smaller allies will also be "grateful," referring specifically to the Philippines.
Japan actually wants to break free from the US to achieve economic independence, but unfortunately, without military sovereignty, economic independence is unattainable. Thus, Shigeru Ishiba has become the scapegoat.
Recently, Ishiba's approval ratings have plummeted significantly, mainly due to the rebound of inflation in Japan, leading to a sharp decline in the support rates of the two ruling parties.
In this round of trade negotiations, Ishiba stated that Japan sacrificed its agriculture in exchange for a reduction in US tariff quotas, while the 50% tariffs on automobiles and steel still remain. In the future, Japan's inflation is bound to rebound further, posing an even greater threat to the government's rule. Therefore, the best solution may be to use Ishiba as a "sacrifice" to quell public anger.
The next focus of negotiations will be on the Asia-Pacific region, including South Korea, Thailand, and India, as well as major allies like Australia and Canada. Besides China, Europe is a key focus of Trump's trade negotiations this time! After all, it is essential for future major US exports.
Jul 10, 00:58
In fact, it is not difficult to analyze, we are results-oriented, and we can know how Trump chose these countries to collect tariffs
From the perspective of "encirclement and suppression" of China in terms of economy and trade:
1. Although the Philippines has great geopolitical friction with China, this is indeed the largest trading partner of the Philippines in trade, and Chinese goods account for 25% of Philippine imports.
2. Brunei, China is its second largest import trading country, and it is friendly to China in terms of diplomatic atmosphere.
3. Moldova, a small country, is the third largest importer in China, but its import quota continues to hit new highs, and its import trend has gradually shifted to China. At the same time, China also trades with it, purchasing wine and agricultural and sideline products, which China does not lack, and imports are only to enhance the trade flow of Moldova.
4. Algeria, needless to say, has been China's largest investor in infrastructure since 20 years ago, and China is also the country's largest trade importer.
5. Iraq, China is its largest trading partner, China buys Iraq's crude oil, and Iraq buys China's electromechanical and automobiles
6. Libya, which is mainly dependent on China for post-war reconstruction, can be regarded as Algeria before it, and the demand for infrastructure in China will increase greatly in the future.
From this perspective, Trump's tariff policy is still centered around the theme of China
The previous 14 points may have been the first echelon, with high demand for trade with China and quotas, and now it is the second echelon
It's just uncertain that now that Trump is imposing tariffs on the second echelon, is it the first echelon that talks smoothly? Or do you choose a country in the lower echelon because it doesn't go well?
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