Markets are now pricing in a 60% chance of a 25bps rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. That would be the first of two cuts suggested by the Fed’s latest dot plot for this year. It might not sound like much, but for risk-on assets like Bitcoin, it’s important that the Fed stays on the path it has signalled for months.

Bitcoin doesn’t need lower rates to perform well. But a surprise shift to more hawkish rhetoric would likely weigh on sentiment across risk assets. Follow @ecoinometrics for more data-driven insights on Bitcoin and macro.