THREE times just this week I've been watching for an entry on something and then the team or someone associated with the team tweets out some surprise bullish shit and it rips. Not fun lol.

One of my strengths is that I can hold things through 90% drawdowns if I have a good thesis on it. Allows me to do things like hold fartcoin from $2M to $2B. But the downside of this is I have a really hard time entering into things that "already pumped" Since my invalidation is fixed at zero, inherently the R:R gets worse for me as things go up and after about $50-100M or so, the amount I need to size into it for it to be worthwhile starts to become larger than the amount I'm willing to let go to zero. Something I'm trying to work on but it's tricky since my invalidation on most on-chain plays is a thesis, not a price point. I don't often have a good place to cut if I'm entering into an uponly chart that's $100M+

ADM held support nicely as majors puked. Think this could be another TIBBIR-like play where the anticipated potential is high due to the breadcrumbs and holders are pretty steadfast because of it.

In hindsight I had everything I needed right in this chart. Rejected off supply area and underside of the trendline. Very clean. But I started seeing it get a couple closes over 1h trend, saw it above the downtrend line, conviction in my short hedges started to disappear, and I closed out. Hard for me to short, I'm almost always bullish crypto on any timeframe above like 1mo. Just a pure misplay from me here, way too easy for me to lose conviction on shorts. So what's my lesson here? As always, more patience would have been useful. Patience for it to start confirming more. Basically when I closed out it was 50/50. Had supply area and uptrend bearish and 1h and downtrend acting bullish. Just waiting a bit longer to close out above supply/trendline would have been a minimal drawdown on my shorts vs closing out below them. Not waiting for that extra 1% move up cost me missing a 5% move down.

Since it looks like this dip is holding so far and we're not getting a cleanse now, my base case is that we go for the third drive, then cleanse after. Invalidated if we lose the 4H trend.

Just keeps rejecting off undersides/trend. Not exactly the picture of strength rn

You might think the best part of summer is scoping out hot babes at the beach. You would be wrong. Bacon. Lettuce. Tomato. #cryptosoupgroup

Weakest ETH has looked on LTF since 2500

Lotta stuff losing 1h trends here...

The major players buying ETH rn are price insensitive. Perhaps you should take a note from them.