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Dr Martin Hiesboeck
Head of Research @upholdinc • Opinions my own.
This is the definition of Singularity

The Economist8 tuntia sitten
The ability of AI models to tackle ever more challenging tasks is growing faster than humanity’s understanding of how the systems it is building actually work.
Researchers are working to reverse that trend
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Brilliant analysis. What if Tom is right?
Is Bitcoin Approaching a Generational Peak?
Examining the "Dome of Doom" Hypothesis
The cryptocurrency market is abuzz with anticipation for the next Bitcoin halving cycle peak, but a contrarian view suggests we may be witnessing something far more significant: a potential generational top for Bitcoin, signaling the start of a prolonged downturn that could see prices not revisited for decades. This perspective challenges the prevailing bullish sentiment by scrutinizing Bitcoin's historical performance and underlying market dynamics.
The Contradiction of Bitcoin's Value Proposition
A core paradox lies at the heart of Bitcoin's appeal: its enthusiasts simultaneously covet extreme volatility for rapid wealth creation and yearn for the stability of a "digital gold." These two aspirations are fundamentally at odds. If Bitcoin continues to exhibit the dramatic price swings that attract speculative investment, it cannot, by definition, serve as a reliable and predictable store of value. Investors must reconcile which characteristic is paramount to their investment thesis.
Decelerating Returns: A Sobering Trend
Analysis of Bitcoin's historical 4-year halving cycle peaks reveals a concerning trend of diminishing returns. While the 2017 peak saw a monumental 1,500% increase from 2013, the 2021 peak achieved a more modest 250% gain over 2017. Current projections for the 2025 peak suggest an even smaller 80% increase from 2021 levels.
This pattern, some argue, is not indicative of sustainable growth but rather a slow, inevitable deceleration. Despite this, a significant portion of retail investors, many of whom have experienced substantial losses in previous cycles, continue to be drawn in by the promise of exponential gains, potentially overlooking these critical long-term trends.
Eroding Momentum: A Technical Red Flag
Beyond price action, technical indicators also suggest a weakening foundation. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a key momentum oscillator, has shown a consistent erosion of momentum with each successive higher peak since 2013. This divergence—where price reaches new highs but momentum indicators do not—is a classic bearish signal, often preceding significant market corrections. This raises the critical question of whether the market is merely facing another 12-month bear cycle or if it's on the precipice of a more profound, decade-long decline.
The "Dome of Doom" Scenario
When plotting Bitcoin's four major peaks (2013, 2017, 2021, and the projected 2025 peak), a distinct curve emerges. This pattern, dubbed the "Dome of Doom," suggests that the 2025 peak could represent the culmination of Bitcoin's extraordinary ascent.
Should this trajectory continue, the implications for future halving cycles are stark:
* 2029 Peak: Potentially around $70,000 (a 43% drop from current levels)
* 2033 Peak: Potentially around $20,000 (an 84% drop from current levels)
* 2037 Peak: Potentially around $1,000 (a 99% drop from current levels)
A Call for Realistic Expectations
While optimistic forecasts for Bitcoin reaching $250,000, $500,000, or even $1 million continue to circulate, the data-driven "Dome of Doom" hypothesis presents a sobering counter-narrative. The law of diminishing returns, coupled with weakening momentum signals, suggests that investors should consider the possibility of significant price depreciation over the coming years.
For those contemplating investment, it is crucial to recognize Bitcoin as a highly speculative asset. Any capital allocated should be considered risk capital, with the understanding that substantial losses are a distinct possibility. Just as a child prodigy eventually faces the realities of adulthood, Bitcoin may be approaching a phase where its initial explosive growth gives way to a more mature, and potentially less forgiving, market dynamic.

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Dr Martin Hiesboeck kirjasi uudelleen
Stablecoins are reshaping global finance – with the US dollar at the helm. Without a strategic response, European monetary sovereignty and financial stability could erode. However, in this disruption there is also an opportunity for the euro to emerge stronger.
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