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Boop.Fun leading the way with a new launchpad on Solana.
Circle keeps getting crazier now ~$65B.
In comparison
- Robinhood ~$69B, $1.3B of net income, 51.5x NI
- Coinbase is ~$78B, $2B of net income, 37.3x NI
- Circle is ~$65B, $259M of net income, 216x NI
Circle now trades for:
- 24.2x Q1'25 revenue run rate
- 60.7x Q1'25 gross profit run rate
- 216x Q1'25 net income run rate.
Investors clearly want stablecoin bets.
19.6.2025
Circle is currently valued at $55B enterprise value.
That implies on 2025 numbers:
- 58.1x Gross Profit.
- 125.2x EBITDA
- 163.7x Net Income
I added Circle Payment Network as a revenue line item
- $570b+ B2B Payment Volume in 2029
- 20% of volume goes to CPN
- 0.10% of take rate to CPN revenue
Updated stablecoin growth assumptions
- Stablecoin supply growing 30% YoY in 2029 to $1.2T
- USDC takes 28.50% of marketshare
- USDC is $370B growing 32% YoY
- Distribution costs stay flat at 65% versus going to 70%
Where I end up in 2029:
- $9B revenue growing 25% YoY
- 35% Gross Margins
- $3.1B gross profit growing 26% YoY
- $2.4B EBITDA growing 32% YoY
Not a lot of upside in the current model.
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