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When you are trying to figure out what’s priced in, the “market” is the last place to look. All the information is under the surface, one good example from @WarrenPies.

16.7. klo 03.15
S&P 500
Mega-cap strength masking weakness under the surface (S&P equal-weight down >1% today).
Median S&P stock was more than 13% away from a 52 week high as the index made new highs.
Bulls need rally to broaden.
Fwiw, we neutralized our equity overweight last week.

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