I don’t own a Tesla nor do I have a vanity plate. But I am a girl dad 👧👧👧, as stated in my profile.

US rates (10yr) and the USD (DXY) are no longer disconnected. Yes, there was a temporary breakdown in April/May. Of late, the daily correlation is back to the strongest levels over the past few years. Expect rates, the USD, and the Fed to continue following the flow of inflation and employment data as long as we don't see another exogenous disruption. My 2c, we'll see modestly higher rates and a stronger dollar over the next 2 months.

Everybody is a genius [investor] when P/Es are going up. This is the part of the market cycle where you can throw darts and make money. Trees don’t grow to the sky and valuations eventually stop expanding when macro risks arise. Currently, the markets reflect very little to no risk. Enjoy it while it lasts.

IMHO, one shouldn’t compare a small sample of EPS beats (only 25% of companies have reported) to the full results of past earnings seasons. This is 🍎 to 🍊. Fun fact, EPS beats tend to be higher earlier in earnings season, and then drift lower rather consistently. Other analysts adjust their numbers and fewer beats occur. There is a pretty wide “earnings season window.”

In government data we trust.

That’s the way to do it - work smarter not harder. And DIY if you want it done right!

Combination of structural (lack of smaller IPOs, PE, last recession was '07) and cyclical headwinds (rates, prices, labor costs). Earnings down 3 years in a row NOT in a recession. Smells like a bifurcated market. Best to be a small cap stock picker given so much fundamental dispersion in the R2k.

Love a good Old School reference. Bring your green hat!

Investors’ penchant for risk has returned with a vengeance since the April lows and peak uncertainty (*). A prudent time to seek out some cheap downside insurance and take profits in stocks that have increased largely from the rising tide of macro relief, rather than improving fundamentals. Handful of potentially negative catalysts ahead in the near term that warrant fading particular areas of the market that have surged in recent weeks as the risk-on tone of the market has become quite extreme. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a small dip in $SPY and $QQQ result in an outsized hit to the most speculative or lowest quality names. The coming weeks will likely bring about a return of the importance of fundamentals as earning season picks up… you don’t want to miss [it]! (*)

I’ve been writing about narrative volatility for a while. The half life of narratives are getting shorter! Cool way that GS illustrates it for us data geeks. I just use the 10yr for simplicity. Remember ~2.5 weeks ago (chart below) when the 10yr fell to 4.22 after ADP when rate cuts for Sep near 100%!? We could probably power all Teslas for a week with all the energy hawks and doves have spent debating the 10yr that’s gone almost nowhere for 2 years.