The biggest change in global flows over the last few years is that China basically swallowed the global goods surplus (correctly measured* in the customs data) 1/

China's surplus is easily on track to top $1.2 trillion this year, and the surplus of China and its neighbors could reach $1.5 trillion (1.5% of WGDP, over 2% of GDP of East Asia's trade partners) 2/

China's gain, in aggregate, has not come at the expense of its neighbors -- thanks in part to China's need for advanced chips (for now) and thanks in part to very weak exchange rates in Korea, Taiwan, etc 3/

Unfortunately, & for complex reasons, this swing -- which is obvious in the real trade data -- essentially disappears in the data that the IMF uses for its external surveillance. China's 2020 CA surplus was ~ 2% of its GDP. Its 2024 surplus was also ~ 2% of its GDP 4/4