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something else I've been bouncing around my head a lot is that the usual "retirement" calculations are expenses x years expected to left to live
e.g. live in SEA $60,000 x 50 years = $3,000,000
however:
- the denominator is worthless
- instead of rapid hyperinflation will likely see sustained high inflation consistently eating away at networth (halving of buying power every 5 years)
- UBI and AI + unknown other factors will massively shake up what the world looks like in 5-10 years
- real retirement isn't real, after 6 months of sitting on a beach you will get bored, might as well have full freedom + project with income
- capital gains beats passive incum
so instead of having an overall "I can retire for the rest of my life" number (which isn't real, and is part of perfectionism) to break it down into investment blocks:
- 24 months of financial freedom (2 yrs expenses in fiat + no debt): allows to pivot life and set up a new business if needed
- 5 year investments: short enough time to try and predict what will happen, not yet full influence of UBI/AI
- 10 year holdings: real estate, land, gold/platinum, antiques, rare wines/whiskey, bullets, uranium, luxury watches and BTC / ETH
- 20+ year: no one knows what the world will look like, and will likely be very different, regulatory changes, new financial instruments, aliens, only very few things worth holding this long such as $PENDLE and schizo adventures
disclaimer: not joking about the aliens, you think in the whole wide universe we are the only ones? nah, the only reason that they've not blown us up is because we're probably way too entertaining, they're sitting around the hologram at dinner thinking "wonder what crazy shid they been up to today"


20.7. klo 11.13
rethinking the ‘make it’ number, not as an exit point, but as a dynamic threshold for long term holding:
instead of framing your portfolio goals as an arbitrary retirement number (once I hit $10m i’ll cash out and retire)
i’ve come to realize that there are very few assets I’d like to “cash out” to…
cashing out to what? stonks? t-bills? low cost index funds? real estate? gold
all are inferior to BTC, ETH and PENDLE
the “make it” strategy that seems much more appealing is twofold:
- accumulation of long term crypto holdings
- taking profit into fiat only on any holdings OVER a set fiat target for the portfolio
e.g. $3m portfolio target
-> portfolio hits $3.2m
-> take profit on $0.2m into:
-> 50% long term crypto holdings
-> 50% fiat
if the portfolio dips below your target, no action
if it rises above, you trim back to your number, harvesting real world optionality without losing core exposure
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