1⃣ Basic Overview: #BTC We need to look at it from a holistic perspective, which is that Bitcoin has gone through three major phases of increase since April 8th. Phase 1: From April 8 to May 22, the price rose from a low of 74620 to a high of 111980, an increase of nearly 50%; Phase 2: From May 23 to June 22, the price retraced from a high of 11980 to 98200, a drop of about 12%; Phase 3: From June 22 to now, the price has risen from 98200 to a high of 123218, an increase of about 25%; The increase in Phase 1 was led by Bitcoin, aimed at recovering the drop from the previous tariff war, ruthlessly harvesting the shorts, and was a recovery after extreme emotional suppression; The increase in Phase 3 was not led by Bitcoin. The crazy rise of CRCL upon its listing brought FOMO sentiment and the passing of stablecoin legislation, injecting new vitality into both the crypto market and the stock market, with stock tokenization, crazy ETF purchases, and the correlation between crypto and stocks, all based on the concept of stablecoins being the main theme of the third phase of increase; Public chains likely related to stablecoins became the main force in the increase of Phase 3, such as: $ETH $XRP, etc. ETH even saw the possibility of replicating Bitcoin's trajectory. 2⃣ Technical Indicator Analysis There is no market that only goes up without going down: The main upward wave of Bitcoin that started in October 2023 has also experienced several retracements to reach its current position. Let’s start with the conclusion (subjective): Each rise of Bitcoin in this round has basically been accompanied by a daily MACD divergence, which has not yet resolved, so I believe Bitcoin may still break new highs; However, in the end (this word is very subjective), I personally think that participating in this round of market is very difficult, and the holding experience is very poor; excessive participation may hinder the transition of bullish and bearish thinking. Additionally, Bitcoin may break new highs, but if we assume that 130,000 is the absolute peak of this round, most altcoins will start to die during Bitcoin's journey from here to 130,000. Objective Path: From a smaller timeframe perspective, Bitcoin is currently in a corrective phase for the rise from 107500 to 123218, without breaking down or expanding the level; Indicators: Weekly MACD is healthy, RSI has not entered the overbought zone; 3-day MACD is healthy, RSI has not entered the overbought zone; Daily MACD shows divergence, RSI is slightly overbought, currently undergoing strong correction; 12H indicators are in the process of correction. From an objective perspective, Bitcoin is currently in a healthy sideways consolidation, and the bullish trend has not deteriorated. From an operational perspective: After taking profits in large positions, not operating / flexibly entering long positions at the bottom of the sideways range (with stop-loss at the lower edge) are both correct operations. Now comparing subjective and objective: Subjectively, it is about fear of heights and the discomfort of transitioning from a simple and smooth upward trend to a sideways market; reflected in the reduced tolerance for pullbacks. Objectively, the overall trend has not ended, but making a top is a process, and there is a possibility of making a top now. If you continue to hold, you must endure possible pullbacks or the double kill of bulls and bears during the topping process. 3⃣ Ethereum Conclusion: According to Ethereum's historical habit of drawing lines (2000-3000, 3000-4000 range, which I have mentioned for a year), I believe that this round of trying to touch 4000 should not be a big problem, but going directly to 4500 is questionable; Since April 8, 2025, Ethereum has also experienced two phases of increase, with the second phase exceeding the first phase by more than 1 time, currently testing the one-time position for a pullback, without breaking down. Summary: Based on the above analysis, the conclusions are: 1. The bullish trend has not deteriorated, and the smaller timeframe is also undergoing healthy corrections; 2. The reasons for exiting are due to daily indicators being overbought, divergence, fear of heights, and fear of profit pullbacks (also possibly because of having eaten a bit too much earlier); 3. The reasons for not entering are due to greed, as there was no particularly ideal pullback position; 4. Next: First, wait for the secondary 12H indicators to adjust, and then enter on the left side when the 4H-8H indicators are oversold, or wait for a right-side breakout to continue entering.