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Denial and Levitation
Markets are pricing in even stronger future growth expectations even as the hard data softens and negative growth policy flows through the economy. It's a dynamic that's typical in late cycles.
@Cube77548440 Feel free to enjoy this data driven, quantitative analysis of the policy impacts ahead.
26.7. klo 18.20
In this weeks free blog app post I look through the three key policy initiatives - immigration, tariffs, and the net impacts of the BBB to get a sense of the magnitudes and the timing. Near term policy looks negative, gradually easing starting in 2H26.
@PalmBeach2024 Or not, but feel free to believe whatever you want.
20.6.2025
6/20/2025 | After a month of waiting, the turn in the data suggests it's time to start legging into the season of disappointment trade. Starting with 50% risk on a trade long bonds + gold and short stocks.
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