Tariff plans scaled back modestly, but markets moved way too much. Stocks vs bonds back to levels just before election. No negative growth policies from the new admin priced in at this point. Fade the rip: Long bonds vs. stocks at 50% risk to start.

Tariff plans scaled back modestly, but markets moved way too much. Stocks vs bonds back to levels just before election. No negative growth policies from the new admin priced in at this point. Fade the rip: Long bonds vs. stocks at 50% risk to start.

Tech stocks are set to party like its 1999 at the open. Looks like that'll be an opportunity to sell the rip as stocks set to fully price out all negative growth policy from the new admin even as the US still faces a Smoot-Hawley tariff rise, zero immigration, and fiscal cuts.

Long stocks, short bonds and short bonds outright vs cash.

While the "Party On, Garth" vibe has been fun, you always wanna leave the party before the cops show up. Time to close out and go flat risk.

The combination of high expectations, softening growth, and a Fed on hold is a classic setup that favors bonds and gold relative to stocks. While it may take a little while for markets to acknowledge the reality it looks like 2H25 is shaping up to be a season of disappointment.