If AI is doing its job its normal that you both get steady bad unemployment numbers while at same time you hear about companies spending and increasing margins The thing thats funny is that due to economic models from last century people arent ready to see a scenario where the data gets worse and better at the same time Its a continuation of the bifurcation of society - killing the middle class What was traditionally the upper middle class is now middle class and you have rich and poor AI is going to be great for generation alpha they come into the world as AI natives but for other generations they need to be taken out by creative destruction and go through transformation The you have until 2030 to make it just basically is referencing the reality that if not then people need to shift jobs/careers midway through their life and learn new skills Gen Z up were educated to live in a world of the past that doesnt exist anymore

When will CT learn that the very concept of "alt season" means speculation not fundamentals Alt season is defined as a time when Bitcoin goes up then tops and then everything runs - that is speculation since its non discriminate An yet everytime it happens each person believes their alt went up due to fundamentals and it will take over the world If it was due to fundamentals they wouldnt drop by double everytime Bitcoin went down The cognitive dissonance on this is insane Most do not have any fundamentals and the ones that do - the fundamental valuation is alot lower The lows to lows on long term are the fundamentals - the highs to highs is speculation

Many investors call buying the SP500 the only way to invest and that single stocks and things are risky - but investing involves risk Basically what it means is that the SP500 is not investing - its a savings tool adjusted for the times You use to work and then save and now the saving is the maintenance of purchasing power via holding SP500 So the SP500 is just a savings tool inflation adjusted - its basically what TIPS are supposed to be Thats why when when Bitcoiners say that Bitcoin is the SP500 of the future - they dont mean its some index or risk on stock They just give the analogy to explain that Bitcoin is savings It use to be "a penny saved is a penny earned" but then a penny saved was not a penny anymore Then its "just buy the sp500" but then its limited by the denominators credibility An now we have "just stack sats and stay humble"

Ideologically “Project Crypto” is cool but it’s not going to be what people think This is not about building things to benefit your coin The rails won’t look anything like what people imagine All these services need recourse There is going to be a lot of noise and you have to be very careful not to fall into false speculation Regulation will also kill many projects from operating without kyc aml etc and continue to lock projects out of the US We are about to start seeing the rubber hit the road where people realise they had the right idea but wrong execution

Population decline is a non issue people The same way lemmings jump off a cliff when there is overpopulation this is the human version of self regulation People complained overpopulation made everything worse and more expensive - so why is this going the other way an issue Why are people worried about it? 1)who will care for old people 2)what will keep up gdp and asset prices and hence the credit system Quite bluntly the older people die and then there is more space and houses and everything for everyone AI and innovation effectively replaces alot of the labour The real main issue is then governments will print money to keep up nominal growth to keep up the credit system which means the problem is that the credit system doesnt hold up with this You let everything inflate away and all assets get repriced on a relative basis when viewed from a different denominator and everything is cheaper, young people have better homes, they are valued since there is less of them and then they can afford to have kids No amount of podcasts and talking or policy is going to fix this globally Embrace it - because thats all you can do

When you are in the building phase where your life is in one location im all for buying a home as personal consumption - its a forced savings tool and gives you stability while you build especially if you have a family and want location security However different to previous generations the "dream" is not owning a home in the suburbs - todays dream is time and mobility freedom as we are no longer limited to one location pre internet A great eg is Pavel Durov - owns nothing apart from his business and Bitcoin - doesnt own a car, or home etc and just use and dispose They are trying to sell you the old dream so that old people can realise their own dreams As any younger self sovereign type person now knows owning just means headaches I was staring at a scratch i made on a wall and thinking - bloody hell i need to get that fixed otherwise noone will do it, Looking at furniture and thinking the effort to move a heavy table if decide to move etc owning is a pain in the ass Ive personally set rules for possessions where am allowed to buy something but can only own one thing of it 1 watch, 1 pear of dress shoes, il order 10 of the same shirt etc and just simplify my life Ive also started to sell off furniture My goal in the end is to sell all real estate and only own digital assets and then own nothing but what fits in a suit case Hotel style apartments where furniture is included etc is the new dream where you dont need to hire anyone, no lawns and live globally even with a family - build to rent in the luxury sector is going to increase International home schooling/international standardised schooling for kids etc Im a couple years away from getting this all sorted out as you need to also organise situations with family members around it but wanted to share as I think this is only going to become more common for those that can Dont tie yourself down to the old dream by osmosis if you dont need to - really think about whats best for you and your family (I understand most cannot do this with their jobs etc) but I think the young wealthy who could be nomadic are still tied to the old world

If you are stuck in an existential crisis imagine you could go back an be any version of you in the past The caveat is you don’t get to add anything ie it’s exactly as you were not smarter not fitter etc Then imagine a future where you could be smarter could be fitter and could be a better person For most people regardless of age they have the opportunity to live a better version of themselves that’s older than the one in the past So yearn for that person You have to orient your life so the best is ahead albeit in different ways ie if you are 60 it’s to grow wiser and to see your grandkids grow up Life is over once you start clinging to the past as the past gets further away from you each day and inversely your life gets worse by the day Everyone subconsciously wants to just be a better version of themselves not to be someone else If you had the option to transport into Elon musks body and you were now him and the you now disappear- most outside abject poverty or near death would not take it Just as you would not take 100 billion dollars to skip your life and die tomorrow Similarly why I advocate for low touch long term investing - unless day trading brings you absolute joy in itself you are wasting your life and overcompensating by buying stuff to make it feel valid You sit at the computer all day stressed out while your gf is on the couch asking when you want to do something - you justify it by buying her something every now and then until all you have is a transactional IG relationship - all pictures no substance Old people that say that lived a great life have 2 things 1)people they love and love them 2)the journey was both the means and the end You win from the second you decide to live that life

The white elephant in the room which I dont think most understand is how crazy altcoin treasury companies are For eg in Bitcoin the risks are from mining centralising to one party not the coins due to the way consensus works in most other crypto assets the risk of centralisation is the tokens itself If you think long term in a world where its all successful its a world where if a company acquires 10% of all eth for eg they can do nothing and on the historic staking yield you would in less than 50 yrs own near half the supply An this is just 1 variation of the issue People over time with alts, memes, nfts, treasury companies are basically breaking off and exploring single elements that bitcoin has and realising that Bitcoin has something they dont have There is no other thats defendable from first principles You have to ask yourself if there is 100s of books on bitcoin published to be analysed and attacked from all angles why does no other have even have a single published book? Because their ideas cannot be defended in long from against first principles Dont confuse short term speculation as the long term trend

If you study Bitcoin you realise that not only real world assets but all crypto assets fall to 0 on a relative basis against Bitcoin An the reason is quite simple - If you believe the USD and other fiat is all going to 0 then the platform value of servicing stablecoins and fiat value isnt where the long term value is since all value there is determined in fiat denomination (And thats assuming stablecoins bring the hyped returns people think to their platforms) Hence you realise the token has to have value in itself without the need for other things to be on other layers as a starting basis as that unit of account needs to be of value first and foremost An only proof of work provides that fair basis where all participants buyers or miners are able to acquire something at market equilibrium risk adjusted Stablecoins and finance are big and it will benefit the whole space Bitcoin included but you have to separate the cognitive dissonance of believing something is worthless and yet at sametime thats why its going to bring value in the long term- You cant forget that stablecoins are just digital versions of fiat To put it simply Bitcoin has value in itself before anything is built on layer 2s and over time Bitcoin reprices everything denominated in fiat down including other crypto assets Most crypto assets only derive value from mediating usage and could not sustain value on its own #Bitcoin