Given treasury strategies holding the same underlying asset are direct substitutes for each other, if they all trade at a material premium to nav a prisoner's dilemma forms. If they work together (illegal?) to not crash the market with a ton of ATMs, then they can slowly grow nav per share (1,1) If one starts to aggressively dump on market, and this leads to compression of nav across the substitutes, the substitutes lose vs. the one who sells aggressively (2,-2) If everyone sells aggressively simultaneously then the nav premium across the complex collapses rapidly (-1,-1)

Mental exercise: if it trades <$1.3bn, do you believe that there's an RFV opportunity. The answer should be apparent, but makes you think

Surely the price action prior to the announcement was completely unrelated...

If you're in this industry, read this so that you understand what is happening with these treasury vehicles and can be prepared for the consequences: There are two types of treasury vehicles: those that create buy pressure and those that create sell pressure. Treasury deals where >50% of the funds raised are committed in-kind (the underlying asset is pledged rather than dollars) are nothing more than an exit scheme. All the technical talk about mnav, discounts / premia, and debt financing is a distraction. Investors have realized they won't be able to exit their large positions in illiquid shitcoins and so they contribute those positions to a vehicle and then plan to exit their position at a premium that can only be described as a market phenomena. This premium exists due to (1) a lack of float, and because (2) the market confuses them with the second kind: Treasury deals where <50% of the subscriptions are in-kind (e.g. Microstrategy and some of the ETH vehicles) are effectively raising dollars to buy crypto and should create net buy pressure. These have their problems, sure, but they are not nearly as egregious nor unsustainable. When the % of in kind subs is over 50%, it can only be interpreted as sell pressure. Many of these treasury vehicles use the confusion between the two to obfuscate the true structure and to stirrup retail exit liquidity for their otherwise illiquid and heavy bags. At the rate we are going, TradFi and retail will once again get burnt here, they will move on, and we'll do irreparable self-induced harm on our industry once again.

There’s already a $500K exemption How many more tax cuts can one country do for rich boomers? The answer: always more

0/ The third cohort of the Token Transparency Framework is LIVE. This round we welcome Euler dYdX ZKsync Layer 3 These teams are elevating the industry's disclosure norms. Let's dive into the details...

I've seen tweets bragging about buying PUMP ICO when it was trading at $6bn, and now see people claiming it was priced correctly bc price is at $4bn. Let's hold off on conclusions of fundamental market efficiency based on short-term price action.

This is the blueprint for the best case outcome for these treasury vehicles. Premium goes to 0, occasional retail speculation that leads to high premium, that gets sold into. Euthanasia roller coaster

Some funds buy tokens at discounts. we buy them at premiums 🫡