I will be releasing my Damped Spring Report called "Big Week" to clients on Sunday. It will preview the QRA and FOMC. I think next week will be highly consequential and impact investing for the year to come. It could be either bullish or bearish but it will be big! Link for membership on bio.

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I'd tell you a Fibonacci joke but it's probably as bad as the last two you've heard combined.

In comments in one of my posts I came across a person with no risk target for his portfolio and a view that his job is to maximize return without regard to risk. I said the job of every investor is to know what their risk tolerance is and hold a portfolio that takes roughly that risk. Here's my comment Here's what I do. You decide if it's useful. There is a level of change in my wealth that I find to be 1) absolute noise. There is a level I find 2) slightly annoying. A level I find that 3) pisses me off but doesn't upset me. A level that that cause me to 4) loose sleep. A level that causes me to 5) act to ease the pain. Those are personal to me. But I assure you everyone has levels like this. I have learned that 4 and 5 are not something I am willing to experience. I have and I don't want to again. So I operate somewhere in the range of 3-4. Which for me place me at a risk target that I can manage and I acccept the expected return that it provides. IF you have never experienced all these levels it's fair to say you aren't taking enough risk but ideally you don't have to experience them and can just imagine them. The risk of actually experiencing a level 5 event is it could turn into a level 6 event which could be a life changing loss or a level 7 which would be a loss so horrible you could not recover to anything like your current lifestyle. All of those risk levels are out there for you to experience and I encourage you to really understand that and hold a portfolio that takes risk but doesn't allow for 6-7 at all. Even an unlevered portfolio is shockingly levered when you consider your future liabilities of paying for your lifestyle and your families education etc.

There has only been one macro trade this year that matters. Everything else has been choppy

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Spicy take this morning Randy Rhoads>Tony Iommi>>>Ozzy. RIP Led Zeppelin >>>>>>Ozzy's bands Jimmy Page = Robert Plant >>>>>>>>>>> all Ozzy related personnel

Welp at least you got your dividend yield on $TXN this year.

Do the private equity buyers of homes structure the purchases such that if capital tax gains on homes would be eliminated for them too? 🧐

I was asked just now by a client if alpha was easier 30 years ago. I responded that the internet didn't exist. So yeah. Somewhat easier.