Latest developments on US-EU tariffs: The US and EU have announced key terms and will hold press conferences in Washington and Brussels, respectively. The announcement of this trade framework has sparked mixed reactions from EU leaders and business groups. Key statements include: 1. French Prime Minister Borne called it a "dark day." 2. German Chancellor Merz welcomed the agreement, stating it "avoids further escalation." 3. From Washington, Lutnik stated, "If the EU wants to gain further tax reductions, it needs to open its domestic market more significantly," and hinted that micro-adjustments to individual industry tax rates could still be made before August. Overall, the trade framework indicates that the EU has made concessions on some domestic market access and large-scale energy procurement and investment commitments in exchange for a 15% tariff rate. Although this is significantly lower than the 30% tariff rate, it still represents a heavy burden for the EU. It is important to note that before the final signing of the agreement, this trade framework may still be subject to modifications or changes. Key areas to watch moving forward: 1. The specifics of the 232 investigation results; if tariffs on semiconductors and manufacturing exceed 15%, it would severely impact the EU's high-value-added products, which are the core of its economy. 2. The 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum remain unchanged; how will the detailed quotas be allocated? 3. If the EU Council raises objections or proposes modifications, the Trump team will apply pressure again. Currently, Lutnik is publicly applying pressure as a means of influence. 4. The $750 billion LNG nuclear fuel procurement order needs to be coordinated among member states for signing. Due to the loose organization, each has its own interests, making it quite challenging to fulfill the final order. Overall assessment: Although there are still many difficulties, the preliminary agreement on a trade framework between the US and EU sends a positive negotiating signal. Once the US-EU trade agreement is completed, it means Trump has resolved a significant negotiation challenge. It also signifies that Trump has achieved his biggest "political accomplishment" since taking office. For the global financial market, this eases trade pressures and brings more positive sentiment, at least providing the market with a more optimistic "fantasy" space. However, this also corroborates my assessment of Trump earlier this year. Long-time followers should remember that at the beginning of the year, when Trump was targeting Canada, I mentioned that he would attempt to transform the "US-Canada-Mexico" economic zone into a North American economic zone. The overall idea is for Mexico to provide cheap labor, while Canada and Greenland supply high-quality raw materials. Then, through the UK, the entire European output capacity would be exported, reducing Europe to merely a capacity exporter of US products. To put it bluntly, Trump treats the "lords" of Europe as "pigs" to be raised!
Cato_KT
Cato_KT28.7. klo 05.26
The trade framework between the United States and Europe is currently publicly announced in preliminary form, but it still lacks legal effect, as it awaits confirmation from the EU. This framework was verbally expressed after a meeting between Trump and EU President Ursula von der Leyen in Scotland, and has not yet been officially published by any media, nor has it been publicly acknowledged by the EU. The contents of this trade framework include: 1. A unified tariff of 15% on most goods, including automobiles, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, etc., 2. A 50% tariff on steel and aluminum, 3. Complete exemption from tariffs on aircraft parts, certain chemicals, general pharmaceuticals, semiconductor equipment, some agricultural products, and critical raw materials. 4. A commitment to invest $600 billion directly in the U.S. during Trump's term, focusing on manufacturing and the power grid. 5. Over the next three years, purchasing $750 billion worth of LNG and nuclear fuel from the U.S., Unresolved issues include: 1. Details of steel and aluminum quotas, 2. Critical minerals agreements, 3. Digital trade and data, 4. Tariffs on pharmaceuticals and chips, etc., At the same time, the EU is also prepared to impose a 30% retaliatory tariff on U.S. goods such as Boeing, corn, and whiskey, involving an amount of $109 billion. Note: This trade agreement is currently only in the framework stage, and formal documents and announcements are needed subsequently. If the final agreement differs significantly from the current framework or deviates too much in content, then the EU's retaliatory tariffs will be implemented, while the U.S. tariffs on Europe will be 30%. The final deadline for this agreement is set before August 1.
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