The next step after premiums decay far enough is for the underlying assets to go into downside price discovery. Take SOL as an example: UPXI and DFDV are seeing declining premium and volume, leading to less capital being raised to buy SOL. These vehicles have been accumulating SOL at about 2% of supply per year. During that period, SOL fluctuated between $150-$200. If the treasury strategies stop providing price indiscriminate buy-pressure to SOL, the market falls out from under it and is forced to find a new equilibrium that no longer takes the treasury strategies current pace of purchases into account.
Noah
Noah30.7.2025
I'm starting to see a trend form... Gotta call in the experts for this one cc: @fozzydiablo
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