My thesis for today's QRA and FOMC has played out. The QRA showed no change in issuance of notes and bonds. The FOMC showed two dissenting votes, but Powell struck the same tone as previous conferences and cited inflation risks holding them back from committing to a rate cut. Expectations for a cut in September have been pared back by 4 bp, making it a 50/50 probability. The lack of any dovish drivers this week will disappoint those who are long risky assets. We'll see if this will be enough to trigger a pullback in risk.