There was a time when a +0.2% print on the Powell ‘super core’ inflation measure would have ignited a bond rally.  Obviously not today, even though this metric has slowed to a mere +1.1% annual rate from January to June.  All the market sees is the tariff effect starting to percolate through the goods sector – and more is to come. The question is the extent to which the moderation on the services front can continue to be relied on to provide an antidote - but the Fed clearly isn’t going to be taking any chances, and the swaps curve is in the process of pricing out the prospect of seeing anything more than one rate cut by year-end.  Given the flatness in the yield curve from overnight to 10-year notes, it will require a real break in the economic data to get the bond market to rally into an inverted state – a conundrum for those of us who have been long duration.