Regarding Trump's attempt to fire Powell last night, as previously stated: firing Powell without cause actually undermines the independence granted to the Federal Reserve by U.S. law (challenging the constitutional system); whether it's calling out Powell or pushing Federal Reserve board members to come out against him in support of interest rate cuts, or discussing the early determination of the next Federal Reserve chair, or trying to force Powell to resign by overspending on renovations of the Federal Reserve building, all of this is political maneuvering within the framework of constitutional law. Firing Powell is not the optimal choice; getting Powell to resign voluntarily is. In the next ten months or so, Powell may: 1) resign voluntarily; 2) serve until the end of his term but Trump nominates a chair candidate early; 3) be fired. For Trump, the best scenario is naturally 1), the second best is 2), and currently, the market is more focused on the interest rate policy path after the new chair takes office. Of course, if it's 3), it will still cause some impact, but the intensity should not be significant.
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