Regarding Trump's attempt to fire Powell last night, as previously stated: firing Powell without cause actually undermines the independence granted to the Federal Reserve by U.S. law (challenging the constitutional system); whether it's calling out Powell or pushing Federal Reserve board members to come out against him in support of interest rate cuts, or discussing the early determination of the next Federal Reserve chair, or trying to force Powell to resign by overspending on renovations of the Federal Reserve building, all of this is political maneuvering within the framework of constitutional law. Firing Powell is not the optimal choice; getting Powell to resign voluntarily is. In the next ten months or so, Powell may: 1) resign voluntarily; 2) serve until the end of his term but Trump nominates a chair candidate early; 3) be fired. For Trump, the best scenario is naturally 1), the second best is 2), and currently, the market is more focused on the interest rate policy path after the new chair takes office. Of course, if it's 3), it will still cause some impact, but the intensity should not be significant.

The crazier the bull market, the calmer we must be. Yesterday, I didn't tweet but took the time to summarize and organize my thoughts from the past few days: The first question is, what is the main narrative of this entire cryptocurrency circle? #BTC 15000➡️120000 This atypical bull market has lasted for two and a half years. Why do we say this is an atypical bull market? Because it is a bull market that has erupted during a tightening cycle. Excluding the overall rebound from the severe drop in the early bull market (after the big bear in 2022) and the various narratives that were later debunked (L2, modularization, etc.), and excluding the super MEME season that emerged due to overall liquidity shortages during the bull market; from a holistic perspective, there is still nothing exciting in the internal narratives of the crypto space. This bull market can basically be defined as a "capital bull" led by the United States after the East-West handover in the 20-21 season. The characteristic of this bull market is that altcoins will rebound sharply in every small trend, while Bitcoin continues to soar. The second question is about Ethereum. #ETH (1300➡️3800) Following the thought process of the first question, let's look at Ethereum; before we look at Ethereum, let's first deconstruct the various stages of Bitcoin's bull market from 15476➡️30000, which experienced a rebound after a deep bear market. But what about after 30000? To now 120000? Interest rate cut expectations? ETF expectations and the capital inflow after the ETF approval? If we connect the entire trend of Bitcoin after it broke through 30,000 in October 2023, we will have the answer. Is this entire range (202310➡️now) peaceful? Were there any negative factors in between? The Japanese interest rate issue, war issues, the favorable conditions after Trump's inauguration, the tariff war... but did these hinder Bitcoin's rise? Not only did they not hinder it, but it also reached new highs. I want to say this is the top-level conspiracy of the "Musk and others." Why do we need to deconstruct Bitcoin first? Because Bitcoin is the template that Ethereum has already run through, and now we can see that capital is beginning to replicate Bitcoin's path on Ethereum; Why did Ethereum rise so quickly from 1300 to 3800, not giving people a moment to react? Aside from a brief consolidation at the beginning, it has basically been following small technical indicators since then? Because this path is familiar, too familiar; Bitcoin has just completed it. The third question: the next thought process. Following the clarified thought process, we can draw the following conclusions: 1. Altcoins are just companions; at least until there is enough exciting endogenous narrative in the crypto space, altcoins can only rebound sharply; do you think it's easier to pick 3-5 coins with a 10000% increase among tens of thousands of coins, or to earn 100% on Bitcoin or Ethereum? If you want to gamble on the former's returns, then why not check if your position has outperformed Bitcoin and Ethereum's gains? 2. We need to give Ethereum enough room for imagination. This question may seem simple, but it's not easy to execute. After all, chasing highs is a tough game; our trading system and technical system naturally reject this emotion and capital-driven rise; 3. In a bull market, technical indicators, especially small-level technical indicators, become ineffective; this is also why many technical traders missed out in this round or exited midway; Overbought? Divergence? Waiting for a pullback? The result of waiting for a pullback is that once you exit, it's hard to get back in; because a bull market is always about emotion, not about any technicality, as bull markets are irrational. In conclusion, A bull market is a great retreat. We cannot predict the overall market top, and predicting the top of individual coins is also difficult. What we can do is to reasonably plan our positions and strategies to cope with the market trends we cannot accurately predict; Taking profits is not wrong, chasing highs is not wrong; what is wrong is taking profits and then chasing highs, chasing highs and not setting stop losses, and being repeatedly harvested after not setting stop losses due to being eroded by crazy emotions. I remember seeing a stock market guru's saying a few days ago: after an attack, the first thing to think about is always defense; and defense without an attack is not called defense, it's called losing money; achieving a balance between offense and defense is a top-level skill; I want to say, don't overthink it, and don't want too much. In a simple market, just earn the money that is within your ability!

From the perspective of fiscal expansion 2.0, let's review the market trends of the past few months and what to expect in the future. Last Friday, during a discussion about the recent market trends, we released the audio from that time. 1. Overall, since mid-April, the market has experienced two waves of movement: The first wave was from mid-April to early June, where there was an increase followed by a slight adjustment, primarily driven by Trump's shift. The second wave started from the U.S. bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities and the cessation of the Iran conflict until now (implying that the U.S. has not given up on global leadership). The deadline for tariffs on July 9 was postponed (at that time, we discussed that the market would buy in again). Last week, inflation met expectations, and the earnings season kicked off positively. Of course, there are special factors for the cryptocurrency market, such as the passage of the stablecoin bill and the advancement of the digital asset market structure bill. Characteristics of these two phases: in mid-April, Bitcoin reacted before the U.S. stock market, while by the end of June, the U.S. stock market was stronger. 2. What to expect in the future? 1) Previously, we discussed that the passage of the Great American Plan signifies a transition from tight monetary policy to expansionary policy during Trump's second term, moving from initially pursuing cost reduction and efficiency to focusing on economic growth. We have talked about the significance of the Great American Plan before. 2) Many people overlook that in 2023-2024, the Federal Reserve will be in a phase of monetary policy contraction (raising interest rates, reducing the balance sheet). The Biden administration's "Infrastructure Bill" and "Science and Chips Bill" represent "Bidenomics," which is the underlying support logic for market trends. At the end of 2023, we discussed this point in two tweets about fiscal policy and liquidity. Therefore, it is referred to as fiscal expansion 1.0, and now Trump represents fiscal expansion 2.0. In the medium to long term, this will form new support for the market. Fiscal expansion 2.0 will likely be accompanied by a continued decline in interest rates (one to two rate cuts within this year, continuing next year, maintaining last year's third-quarter judgment of limited easing within the next two years). 3) The biggest driving force for the cryptocurrency market lies in the stablecoin bill and the digital asset market structure bill, which will bring about a wave of stablecoins, the trend of merging cryptocurrencies and stocks, and the real implementation of RWA, leading to greater mass adoption. Fiscal expansion 2.0 is the fundamental support logic for the entire macro market, while the stablecoin bill and the digital asset market structure bill provide the support logic for crypto assets, forming a solid foundation for the medium to long-term market. 3. What are the possible risks in the future? 1) However, we have previously discussed that the biggest policy constraint of fiscal expansion 2.0 is the increasing scale of U.S. debt. Although there is no crisis of U.S. debt default, there is a risk that long-term bond yields will rise, suppressing market risk appetite and impacting risk assets. 2) In the short term, the tariff deadline on August 1 is approaching. Previously, in the tweet about what Trump wants regarding tariffs, The risk lies in Trump's unwillingness to compromise, and it is difficult for the EU, Japan, and South Korea to reach an agreement (it seems they do not expect much concession from Trump). If the new tariffs are implemented on August 1, it will have a certain impact on the market. Especially since Trump is starting to get annoyed by being told that he always backs down at critical moments. Last week, the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump only abandoned the hasty dismissal of Powell under the advice of Bessent. Today, Trump stated, "I don't need anyone to explain the stakes to me; I only explain to others," showing visible anger. We cannot expect Trump to always compromise. Of course, if an agreement is not reached and the tariffs are announced directly, I believe the impact will be much smaller than the level seen in early April. The U.S. stock market will likely only see a minor adjustment, and the cryptocurrency market will naturally be affected. Then, if Bessent intervenes, it is also possible to reduce the newly added tariffs, which could present another opportunity to enter the market. In the short term, we also need to pay attention to inflation trends. My personal view has always been that the product inflation caused by tariffs will be offset by the weakening energy inflation and service industry inflation. Overall, the medium to long-term logic is solid, and there will be several minor risk shocks that will lead to market adjustments, but I personally see a low probability of a super large-scale risk shock similar to that of March and April.

The recently released U.S. June PPI data all fell short of expectations and were lower than previous values, especially with the PPI and core PPI month-on-month rates both at 0%, significantly below expectations. As the price index at the wholesale level, PPI serves as an upstream indicator for inflation data like CPI and PCE, suggesting that the June PCE data should be quite good, and it even provides a leading indication for July's inflation data. This is positive data for the market. The day before yesterday, I mentioned that "greed is harder to reverse than fear," which undoubtedly boosts market sentiment and future interest rate cut expectations. The PPI (Producer Price Index) has significantly decreased across the board from producers to wholesalers, showing no reflection of tariff impacts. I believe there are two reasons for this: 1. Today’s tweet on "What does Trump really want regarding tariffs?" 2. The weakness in the service sector; the June PPI data falling short of expectations is largely due to the decline in service sector prices. Yesterday's CPI data also showed that the core CPI month-on-month was below expectations.

Big A's reaction is still very fast, yesterday Powell's congressional hearing speech slightly cut interest rates relaxed, domestic interest rate cut expectations have risen (in May, before the Fed did not cut interest rates, it had already been cut once, and now the Fed has relaxed the domestic natural interest rate cut is expected to be stronger); In the second half of the year, there is also an IPO opening, which is expected to be good for the performance of brokerages; Yesterday, Guotai Junan International was approved for a virtual asset trading service license in Hong Kong, and other securities firms with subsidiaries in Hong Kong are expected to be licensed. Trump said yesterday that he hopes that Dongda will buy U.S. oil and release expectations for the easing of relations. Looking at the Shanghai Stock Exchange, since September 24 last year, this is the third wave of attempts to break up. It's said that there are only three things, can you get your wish this time?

Investing is a game of confidence, and confidence comes from a high degree of certainty about the future potential of the investment. This certainty is derived from a deep analysis of the sector, the position one is in, business progress, the team, and even emotional premiums. Trading, on the other hand, is a game of discipline. Discipline comes from understanding human nature; when a signal is generated within your trading system, you must enter the market, and when it reaches the take-profit or stop-loss level, you must exit. Violating the system can easily disrupt your mindset, turning small victories into significant wins. Both investing and trading are fundamentally about probability; there’s no guarantee that any single move will be 100% successful. It’s a comprehensive consideration of four factors: win rate (how high?), odds (how large?), slope (how long is the time period?), and position size (what proportion?). A good philosophy should be: Correct direction, build confidence, withstand volatility, and take profits at the right time. Each step is a test.

Regarding Trump's attempt to fire Powell last night, as previously stated: firing Powell without cause actually undermines the independence granted to the Federal Reserve by U.S. law (challenging the constitutional system); whether it's calling out Powell or pushing Federal Reserve board members to come out against him in support of interest rate cuts, or discussing the early determination of the next Federal Reserve chair, or trying to force Powell to resign by overspending on renovations of the Federal Reserve building, all of this is political maneuvering within the framework of constitutional law. Firing Powell is not the optimal choice; getting Powell to resign voluntarily is. In the next ten months or so, Powell may: 1) resign voluntarily; 2) serve until the end of his term but Trump nominates a chair candidate early; 3) be fired. For Trump, the best scenario is naturally 1), the second best is 2), and currently, the market is more focused on the interest rate policy path after the new chair takes office. Of course, if it's 3), it will still cause some impact, but the intensity should not be significant.

Waller wants to improve so much that Trump said: "This old boy can handle it, the next FED president will be the first choice"

Hello old friends, it's been a long time, and I miss you all. 🥰😘 I believe everyone is very concerned about where Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the U.S. stock market will go after reaching new highs? This week is Crypto Week, and there will be three important crypto bills passed, which could even fundamentally change the infrastructure of the crypto space. After these fundamental changes, how should we proceed in the future? Trump has been frequently pressuring Powell by using the renovation of the Federal Reserve headquarters as a breakthrough point, and his fate has attracted global capital attention. As a barometer, the Federal Reserve Chair plays a key role in guiding when interest rates will be cut. How will Trump conduct the next round of the tariff war on August 1st, two weeks from now? There are so many questions lingering in our minds, so instead of waiting for a better day, let's meet tonight at 8:30 with old partners @Phyrex_Ni @qinbafrank @Trader_S18 for a reunion 🤝 and discuss recent hot topics in "Let's Talk"~🙌