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I just listened to an interview with LACY HUNT, a renowned economist, and here are some summarized points:
1. The annualized tariff volume is currently at $350 billion, while companies have only paid over $500 billion in total taxes in 2024, so don't underestimate the revenue from tariffs; it's significant.
2. The first-order effect of tariffs is inflation, but the subsequent second-order and third-order effects are deflationary, as they severely squeeze demand.
3. The second-order squeeze includes foreign investment in the U.S.; when tariffs reduce the trade surplus of foreign countries with the U.S., naturally, their investment in the U.S. will also decrease (such as U.S. Treasuries, U.S. stocks, corporate bonds, etc.).
4. The second-order effect will put significant pressure on liquidity, while the Federal Reserve is still reducing its balance sheet. LACY HUNT believes the Fed needs to use QE to counter the second-order effects and provide liquidity to the market.
5. From a fiscal stimulus perspective, Trump's Great American Plan only adds an extra $50 billion a year, which is insufficient to meet the demand for liquidity.
Finally, here are some of my thoughts. I can't help but admire the perspective economists have when viewing issues from a higher vantage point. Let's change our thinking: the U.S. government has increased fiscal revenue by $300-400 billion due to tariffs, and this money must come from somewhere in the world (it could be from Chinese exporters, U.S. import companies, retailers like Walmart, or each of us consumers). So from this angle, its global impact is to contract liquidity; of course, the U.S. government can redistribute it (through additional fiscal stimulus). Therefore, I somewhat agree with Bessenet's viewpoint: everyone says tariffs have an inflationary effect, and the tax cuts from the Great American Plan also have an inflationary effect; these two viewpoints are contradictory. Tariffs are essentially tax increases, while the Great American Plan is a tax cut.
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